" For those of us who have been here awhile (2 or 3 years) & are being paid in the local currency ... <p> You probably feel much as I do watching impersonal currency pricing mechanisms give your local savings account a nasty shakedown as you watch the dollar/franc rate climb from 1.30 in September ''98 to the 1.70 range by early ''00, where it''s still stuck (1.70 as of yesterday). You know you''re going back some day, but don''t like the thought of going back with 30% less for no reason. <p> Maybe you even panicked when it started climbing towards 1.90 territory (September ''00), asked Swiss friends whether rates have ever been this high, and found out it had even been in the 2.50 range sometime in the ''80s. <p> So like as not, you watch the daily exchange rates, and prophecies of them, with the interest of an addict. <p> For what it''s worth, here is another round of predictions gathered from today''s Tages Anzeiger. Take some heart from them (but don''t place your bets). <p> TA, 27 April 200, p. 35 From an interview with the President of the Swiss National Bank, Jean-Pierre Roth <p> <i>The experts have been predicting a stronger Euro and a weaker dollar for two years. Why is it so difficult to predict exchange rate relationships?</i> <p> Jean-Pierre Roth: The exchange rate is quite strongly impacted by expectations. The markets assess the US''s prospects -- despite the economic breakdown -- as better than Europe''s, as before. Otherwise the dollar would have lost in value in the last few months. And yet the dollar is still strong, even though Europe currently has stronger growth than America. Investors, looking at the broad picture -- big country, lots of necessary resources, economically friendly political landscape -- have strong confidence in the USA. In comparison, the situation in Europe is marked by insecurity -- look at for instance the East expansion, or even just the current strike situation in France -- and hence less attractive for investment. That explains to me why the dollar is strong. Thus the Euro is more at the mercy of overall economic climate than ongoing Geldpolitik. <p> <p> TA, 27 April 200, p. 37 <b>More money in your wallet</b> <i>KOF''s economic experts prophesy lower rates, more pay, less unemployment in the next few months. But also less growth.</i> <p> ... result? The Euro should climb against the Dollar; possibly up to 1.10 by the end of the year, so says the KOF. ... ""We''ve been wrong on that before, as many others have"", concedes KOF leader Bernd Schips. <p> [Euro is currently around .90; if it goes to 1.10, and Swiss franc follows suit, it implies a franc in the 1.30 to 1.35 range] <p> Yves, 27 April 2001 <p> "

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