PombinhaCoco7
8/26/2018 16:04 EST
I'm a legal resident in Costa Rica so this has nothing too do with Border runs. I spent some time in Nicaragua last year and I loved it! Is it too early to plan a weekend there? My son is coming for 3 weeks and I would like to know. Thanks
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atz111
8/26/2018 16:09 EST
Be ok. Not much nite life now but town is slowly getting back to normal. While tourists are important, nice to have fewer of them as is now the case.
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KeyWestPirate
8/26/2018 18:52 EST
What is open? Did most of the expat leave or stay?
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atz111
8/26/2018 19:58 EST
All services are open..grocery, gas, hardware. About 1/4 of the bars and restaurants and hotels open. Up a lot since a month ago. Some closed for good others waiting for business to return ...kind of a chicken and egg deal. I really cannot say with any accuracy what percent of expats here or gone. I have expat acquaintances, but not a member of that group. We have about 3 to 1 ratio of people who are gringos and not expats., just wanna be ones. Most of the ones I know who left I am glad to see go.
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volcan357
8/26/2018 23:30 EST
Hello. Before all the trouble started in April I had been considering a move to Nicaragua. I am currently in Panama where I have lived for the past 18 years. I am fluent in Spanish and my wife is from the Dominican Republic. Do you think things will eventually get back to normal in Nicaragua? I am near the border with Costa Rica about an 8 hour drive to the border with Nicaragua. It would be a number of months before I could make the move so I am wondering what you think the situation will be a few months from now. Of course no one knows the future. Just your opinion.
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atz111
8/27/2018 10:04 EST
VOLCAN357
Pretty hard to give any good answer to this as covers a lot of ground.. There are really two dimensions...the first is it/will it be safe for normal living by an expat and somewhat linked to that is the rebirth of the tourist industry...... and the second revolves around the political situation and if that will stay settled,....at least as disruptions to everyday life.. Of course the two are linked in many ways.
I believe that on the first issue things will continue to improve and as I have said are already much improved. If you are not here to earn a living off the tourist industry or affiliated things it is fine and still a very nice place to live. .Using just a bit of common sense, not a danger because of this. I would not buy a place tomorrow, but would rent and see for yourself.. Granada or along the coast are the best areas to currently look at.
As far as the political issues...who knows.
I sent you a PM
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Rosses003
8/27/2018 10:23 EST
I would give it a good year to see how the situation shapes itself. Consider it is not only about safety and the political situation, which are in itself very important; it is also about how this is and will affect economically Nicaragua for many, many years. If I were you, in all honesty, I would not gamble with my future and more importantly my family’s future; just my opinion.
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KeyWestPirate
8/27/2018 17:32 EST
Excellent post from ATZ.
Three things: we've had little anti gringo feelings,, i believe most gringos do feel safe.
Crime will increase, this is not something the government is driving, although one could say government is responsible for increased unemployment and lawlessness. So keep aware of surroundings and stay in at night.
Finally, there will be some killer deals, give it six months for the reality to set in. It's going to get better,, we' ve been here before,,
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waltermboyles
8/28/2018 11:56 EST
The April crisis seems to have passed...The next crisis might have to do with the life expectancy of 72-yr-old presidents who lack the honor to step down when not loved...H2O 212F
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KeyWestPirate
8/28/2018 12:38 EST
There is increasing pressure on Ortega from a number of directions. Pressure from the OAS, talk of more sanctions from the US,, and not just the usual suspects in Florida this time.
Ortega cannot survive without fresh money and/or donations. His donations have dried up, He doesn't have many fiends left. Venezuela's contribution last year was $93 million, and major lenders like CBIE, World Bank, IDB,, are going to be leery about giving him new money. He has some contracted money out there, but he is burning thru it quickly. The economies of Russia and Iran are both under severe pressure and don't have a lot of cash to spread around. More tanks,, maybe,, even a submarine or two,, but real money is not going to happen.
Ortega MIGHT be foolish enough to get cheap oil from Iran,, ,,going to be plenty of that in a few months,,, oil is a $900 million bill for Nicaragua,, but US sanctions would shut down the Nicaragua economy in a matter of months.
The Nicaraguan legislature floated a $300 million bond issue last week,, buy the bonds for dollars now,, payable in Cordaba in 25 years. It's referred to as Sopa de Vaca Muerta.
The BCN is offering certificates of deposit,, a one year certificate at $10K, for 8%. Again,, it's sold for dollars,, and payable in Cordoba.. This is going to push up the cost of money for everyone,, real estate, vehicles,, AG loans. Supposedly,, car sales fell in July from 2000 cars to 200.
Numbers from the BCN have recently become very suspect,, the bank has been politicized.
Nicaragua has a $2 billion + balance of trade deficit. When Danny runs out of dollars,, he will do what Nicaragua has done twice in the past 30 years,, and what Maduro has been doing for five years:
http://articles.latimes.com/1990-06-01/news/mn-243_1_inflation-nicaragua-month
The US bailed out Nicaragua then,,, but it won't happen again. The Cordoba will devalue,, slowly at first as in Venezuela, then faster and faster. The BCN is already charging a 1% premium to change cordobas into dollars. They can raise that premium as they need to.
Remittances will help a lot,, but the piper WILL be paid,, probably in less than a year. Nicaragua can survive with funny Cordoba for a year or two,, afterall,, Nicaragua will pay teachers, police,, etc, in Cordoba,, and just continually raise the minimum wage. They will probably couple this with price controls on basics like rice, sugar,, beans, corn.
This is not going to affect the Expats, except many things will get much less expensive for people with dollars. For the Nicaraguans paid in Cordoba,,, anything imported will be un affordable. As in Venezuela,, shortages will appear.
The only downside I see to this for the expats is,,, crime will definitely increase. There are going to be a lot of hungry people,,, especially urbanos who cannot find work in a contracting economy.
I cannot see the free trade zones cutting back,,,they will remain a dependable source of employment as they have access to dollars, and they will be paying their employees less and less as the Cordoba falls in value.
As in all these economic disruptions,, there are winners and losers, -and significant opportunities for someone with an appetite for risk.
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atz111
8/28/2018 13:06 EST
Well KWP its a good analysis.and unfortunately.in the end it seems like the only things that can/will be done will hammer the Nicaraguan economy. The ordinary people suffer, the rest goes on as usual and a few with some money and guts make a fortune. I have my doubts about all this sanction stuff....Iran, N. Korea and others got through all that just fine. Maybe the USA should think out of the box for a change.....how about we will bail you out and support you monetarily and make economy even better than it was i when the next election comes you step down nicely...and in the meantime just cool it. Yeah, i know many will hate this approach because it does not "punish" him, but that ain't really gonna happen anyway. 25 year notes...I think if i had money I'd buy some.
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FelipeWambango
8/29/2018 11:24 EST
Hello, I'm curious as to why you would consider leaving Panama for Nicaragua? I was thinking about looking into moving to Panama due to the problems here ?
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volcan357
8/29/2018 11:49 EST
I married a girl from the Dominican Republic but Panama won't let her into the country. They say it is a marriage of convenience. I am tired of fighting with them about it so I am leaving as soon as I can sell my property. Unlike Panama Nicaragua does not require a visa for citizens of the Dominican Republic. Neither does Colombia or Ecuador. I have lived in Panama for 18 years and have Panamanian citizenship. I was thinking of Nicaragua because it is only an eight hour drive from my house. If I move to the Dominican Republic I will have to have all my things shipped in a container. I would also have to sell my car and buy another one in the Dominican Republic. It would be cheaper to buy a rural property in Nicaragua. However maybe it isn't a good idea now with the protests. I had been considering it before the protests got started in April. I am wondering if things will calm down after a while or if the problems will continue. In any case when I find a buyer for my property I will see how it is in Nicaragua. Maybe I will just end up moving to the Dominican Republic.
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dalepues
8/29/2018 12:12 EST
Good financial summary of Nicaragua, for the present. 25 Year notes wouldn't work for me; maturity would put me near one hundred. What does a centenarian spend his money on? Day old bananas?
I left, went back in June, left again, about to return to fish for a couple of weeks, maybe a month. This will be time spent along the coast. It's usually quieter there. The heat slows everything to a crawl.
We roll the panga into the water around five am, troll a five mile loop until nine, maybe ten if it's overcast, beach the boat and divide up the catch. Some days we're skunked, others we put three hundred pounds or more in the boat. Just three of us, capitan, guide, and fisherman. Two Penns, two Rapala magnums in the water. We've been fishing together since 2012. Sebastian and his sons are the salt of the earth.
And that's what I miss about Nicaragua and what will make me go back, despite the depressing political situation. I'm drawn to the life there. I don't care about the money or the opportunities. Life seems more real in Nicaragua, the people seem more real. Though right next door, life is different in Honduras, and very different in Costa Rica, where I would not live.
Dictatorships never end well. Many people suffer who shouldn't. Now Nicaragua has more martyrs to paint on the walls. More mothers are grieving. Rencillas de sangre are growing exponentially. The Ortegas, all of them, are terrified, as they should be. Everyone close to the Ortegas must be exhausted contemplating the uncertainty of their future.
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FelipeWambango
8/29/2018 12:16 EST
I visited Esteli twice with my Nica wife before we moved here. The last being a few months before moving here in June. It is a Tale Of Two Cities. Esteli has changed but other than Masaya ; which is beautiful but one of the most dangerous places during all the problems; Esteli is the only place I would live. My wife and I met in Costa rica and were married there. Keep in mind that you cannot import a vehicle older than 10 years old into Nicaragua and you can only legally drive for 30 days on a tourist visa and then you and your car have to exit. You can drive 90 days in Costa Rica and 90 days in Honduras but only 30 here which makes no sense? I guess they want tourists to spent their $'ers in other countries ?
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atz111
8/29/2018 12:27 EST
Dalpues...where is that boat with the guide and capitan...near what town/beach...on the bonds...you can sell before maturity in the bond market...so in 5 or so years if things doing well you can sell and make money...if not doing well have to hold or sell at a loss
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KeyWestPirate
8/29/2018 13:38 EST
In all fairness. The gringos harvest been targeted. Some areas,, like around my farm, have not seen anything.
I think two with American citizenship have died, the first early on in a robbery. He was a Nica-Venezuelan-US citizen. Happened at 2 or 3 AM. Other can't remember,, but it wasn't tourist or expat.
I personally believe that this is the time to arrive,, in terms of purchasing a property. Things were getting a little unrealistic.
It's sad what is going on, but it really doesn't affect one. Certainly,, you don't want to be marching in demonstrations, you DO want to be aware of your surroundings. Acknowledge that a lot of people lost their source of income and their kids are hungry. Your wallet and cell phone are a tempting target
I left in April,, am going back in November. This will pass, and what drew US to Nicaragua remains solid.
I remain bullish on Nicaragua.
To Volkan: I second what ATZ said, visit, rent and look for some killer deal. I had a friend who was cutting across a park in Alajuela, CR, after dark,, same route he always took,, hit over the head with a rock, wallet and laptop stolen. Can happen anywhere.
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atz111
8/29/2018 14:22 EST
Safety...a bit better than Baltimore. Be a bit more theft as incomes down. Gringos not getting harrassed by Gov. or others. Need to stay out of their business. If trump can keep his mouth shut about it, you can too.
In 2004-2006 a guy named Charlie came to Granada and spent about 1.5 million on property in town and on Mombacho. Did some rehabs, but mostly waited and sold in 2008-20010 at 2x what he paid...in some cases a bit more. I bought one in 2010 that he paid 30K for and I paid 50K for it 3 years and later. I spent 60K on first class remodel. Before the recent stuff....had $160,000 0ffer which was fair but I turned it down. Yesterday had offer for $110,000, so people starting to pick the bones already. BTW...not selling and holding my price or keeping it....but if I were really scared i could sell and not lose my shirt.
This will happen again in 2-4 years. Property is down 20-30 percent already and will drop more as people get desperate to recoup some money...and sadly some Nicas have to sell property. Next to me is a beat up, but liveable Nica house the lady owner who did not live there would not sell at anything close to reasonable...wanted 4x what the real value was. Yesterday she came and wanted 30K...a steal. Good title in a good neighborhood. 70K and you have what in March was selling for $200,000. The price when this settles in a year will be more reasonable...maybe $160,000. if you have money this is a good time to buy...sure some risk, but really not a lot if you buy right and can last 4-5 years. Boom again.
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KeyWestPirate
8/29/2018 15:52 EST
The best deals are always in the bottom of the trough, or maybe just as you start to climb out.
The key is really knowing what is the bottom. I bought a house in Boise some years back,, market had dropped 30K on this house , agent assured me that was the bottom,, two months after we closed,, the house was worth 30K less.
Nicaragua will always be there, places like Granada and SJdS will always be desirable and have intrinsic value.
In all fairness, Granada was becoming too touristy,, not as much fun as it was,, I used to really enjoy it there. Last coupe of times it was overwhelming.
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volcan357
8/29/2018 20:09 EST
Does anybody know anything about the southern part of Nicaragua? San Juan del Sur or the island of Ometepe in the lake. How have the protests affected these areas?
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volcan357
8/29/2018 20:32 EST
The other thing I was wondering if I could apply for residency in Nicaragua as a Panamanian rather than as an American since I have dual nationality. I haven't set foot in the USA for the past ten years and I don't want to go back there looking for documents. Have the protests stopped the government from processing residency applications? Have the protests made it harder or easier to get residency?
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atz111
8/29/2018 20:51 EST
SJDS hit by supply problems but not much action otherwise. Ometepe had some problems. And ferries quit for a bit so that complicates things
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volcan357
8/30/2018 00:54 EST
Thanks for the info. Maybe in a month or so we can have a better idea how things are going to be.
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elduendegrande
8/30/2018 09:07 EST
Volcan, your desire to know what Nic will be like in X number of months is wasted time. Nobody on this planet knows this. It is a fluid situation. The fixation will "protests" is simplistic. The body count is currently down but both sides are actively pursuing their causes and there is just about zero reason to expect this will be over quickly. If you rent, mind your own business, and have outside income you can probably find a niche here but you could do the same elsewhere without the known downside political risk.
You and your wife can come visit for 180 days and an incountry 180 day renewal to check it out. there is a lot going on here behind the scenes that as spanish speakers you would be able to pick up on
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dalepues
9/10/2018 23:56 EST
atz111 Cazares.
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