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Russophile
  11/30/2015 12:49 EST

There is an economic phenomenon in the US and Canada called the Penny Stock Market. Very small companies can float an IPO to gain capital for development, and the stocks sell for (you guessed it) pennies per share. Modern P. T. Barnum's ('there is a sucker born every minute') send out press releases to extol the virtues of the company underlying a stock. Rosy forecasts and pro-forma economic data abound. People looking to make a fast buck buy into this hype and the price of the stock rises, sometimes astronomically. The promoters then cash out, pocketing huge sums of money. After the hype ends, since there is no real fundamental support for the stock, the price plunges. Since the stock market is a 'zero sum' game, for every winner there is a loser. The promoters win, and everyone else is left with worthless pieces of paper.

I had a conversation yesterday with a friend from Odessa. She is pursuing a graduate degree in international diplomacy and she has a pretty good feel for what is really going on in Ukraine. She said, “My grandmother had to pay 1000 UAH for her apartment per month. (Her grandmother's pension is 2000 UAH per month. The average pension is 1300 UAH.) There are people starting to die or to kill themselves because of the economic situation. Most people here earn 1500-3000 UAH per month. Soon it will be impossible to live!”

On my daily walks through Odessa, I go to the markets, the shops, the restaurants and the cafes. I see a lot of shoppers but few buyers. Most cafes and restaurants are pretty much empty. Their staffs are standing around playing games on their smart phones. There are 'Help Wanted' signs to be seen, but my friends tell me that these jobs are for long hours that don't pay a living wage. The official figures published for Ukraine are Unemployment rate: 9.8%; Inflation rate: 45.8%; GDP growth -0.7%; USD exchange rate: 25:1. (For the first 4 years that I traveled to Odessa regularly, the rate was 8.25:1).

I know an expat who has lived in Odessa for the last 10 years. He has no 'outside' source of income. He lives and profits here from his own ingenuity and hard work. He also holds a gloomy view of the future. He stated many reasons, but the most poignant statement he made was, “It's not the country, it's the people that are the problem”. After 70 years of indoctrination of Communist ideology, the populace here cannot grasp the concept of business without corruption; good customer service; hope for a better future and the value of planning ahead, saving money and investing in an education in a field with a future. If someone does try to break out of the mold, it is like the crabs in a bowl. If one tries to climb out, the others pull him back in. Those with a little spark of ambition know that their only hope for a brighter future is to get out of Ukraine. But many won't take that step when the opportunity is placed before them.

I attend a weekly English language club put on by a local church. They put on a pretty good program for 2 hours and it is free. About 100 young people attend every week. I made an offer to those 100 people that I would meet with them in small groups (no more than 3 people) to give them the opportunity to learn and practice Conversational American English from a native English speaker. For that instruction, I would ask them to pay me 50 UAH ($2) per hour per person. Here, the knowledge of English is the ticket to a better future. There were no takers.

Could it be that the 'unbiased' publishers of the rosy forecasts from InterFax Ukraine are talking to the P. T. Barnumovsky's of Ukraine? Could it be possible that there are those putting out sugar-coated economic forecasts with the hope of raking in profits from foreign investments and then retiring to Belize? And we can never forget the 'Sword of Damocles (Putin)' that hangs over Ukraine. Who wants to predict what will come up on that roll of the dice? Lots of unanswered questions......

smmoravec
  11/30/2015 12:58 EST

This very accurately depicts my experience with Ukrainians as well. I have a good friend who has worked hard for the last several years. Instead of investing hard earned money or even putting it in a bank account, it lies converted to Euros in a fireproof safe hidden away in their apartment. $30,000 worth...that was insane. the hope of being able to purchase an apartment is the driving force. Commendable is the effort at saving...but deplorable at what to do with the money once it is in hand. There is not trust in the government or financial institutions in Ukraine. Aptly stated "It's not the country, it's the people that are the problem”. I whole-heartedly agree.

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MichaelTryn
  11/30/2015 21:47 EST

Maybe they feel you are one of those adventurers enroute to Belize.I agree a good discussion with an interesing person is well worth the time. And many in the media feel if Clinton is in office: it will be an extension of the worthless period of O'Bama,she is"in the pocket' as the saying goes of many a big company. You are corret about the idiology of the people, but are biased re: Putin: may I refer to a former politician, Idon't know who exactly, maybe Jefferson."The greatest threat to the people is "the govenment in office!" Putin and the Nato warlords are @ odds, but if ne thinks "rationally," would YOU want a "broken and corrupt country with oligarchs?" Take away the names Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has agriculture, but ag is EVERYWHERE. No ONE needs it, except china may buy their products. The E.U. is loded with farms, that is why Romania and Bulgaria have nothing to sell. How much can Ukraine make selling wheat. About enterprise: It is correct about education ,(to a degree). I just watched on the History channel about Carnegie, Ford, J.P Morgan, and Rockefeller. They lived in a different world" It stated Rockefeller had the equivelent of $660 billion in today's money. One thing he "could not cheat was death!" He lived to 97 and donated much as did Carnegie, after they awoke to the fact: they could not take it with them to the afterlife!

MichaelTryn
  11/30/2015 21:58 EST

A large matter that the u.s. MUST correct that is destroying the future is "student debt,"College must be free. One may say education is the future, but "how many make ANYTHING out of going to college? " Colleges trump up the bill by adding frivolous classes that are worthless adding credits that are irrelevent. What future do the "African Americans" have if they can't hanadle a football or basketball? I spoke with the elder blacks twice the past week, drive -by shootings in Chicago as usual, due to drug dealings. This is what the almighty teachers union in the city is being paid for. The major wants to "balance the budget", and I heard there is a strike meeting for Dec.. building another prison may take place. Illinois is not far from Detroit financially. Good to hear from you, take care!

Khersonbill
  12/4/2015 19:48 EST

Mike-- Something to think about! You say that Ukraine is mostly farms, and no one needs that? Well-- Russia needs that! Let me tell you that about 2/3 rds of Ukrainian farm land is leased for many years ahead by USA and other countries. Russia has opened up a bees nest--- little putin has krapped, and fell in it face down! I will predict a BIG terrorist problem in Moscow by new years! Many muzzies live in Russia. One small nuke could cripple downtown Moscow for 20 years. Ukraine is a good country--- WILL be much better when little putin gets his terrorists out ! take care--- Bill

MichaelTryn
  12/4/2015 22:37 EST

The ONLY way Ukraine is ever going to move ahead is to "GUT the WHOLE political rada to get the corruption out. Everyone knows that. WE in the U.S. get sh*t on due to the politicians here staying in office till they die. How many are over 70 here, plenty as you know. Their head is still in 1968 fighting a cold war. Their was a sec of state under Clinton on a story today tesifying in 2014 the story stated that the U.S. "started trouble with Russia" expanding NATO in 2014. WHY to keep PUSHING and threatening Russia, forget Putin. Would YOU keep tolerating a neighbor next door (for example) blasting rock music @ 2a.m., I had one with a broken truck and deisel for a short time. NATO is worthless, from 1940. It only bleeds the fools as they are bled like Al Capone for protection money.

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William Russell's private medical insurance will cover you and your family wherever you may be. Whether you need primary care or complex surgery, you'll have access to the best hospitals & doctors available. Unlike some insurers, we also include medical evacuation and mental health cover in our plans (except SilverLite). Get a quote from our partner, William Russell.
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MichaelTryn
  12/4/2015 22:37 EST

The ONLY way Ukraine is ever going to move ahead is to "GUT the WHOLE political rada to get the corruption out. Everyone knows that. WE in the U.S. get sh*t on due to the politicians here staying in office till they die. How many are over 70 here, plenty as you know. Their head is still in 1968 fighting a cold war. Their was a sec of state under Clinton on a story today tesifying in 2014 the story stated that the U.S. "started trouble with Russia" expanding NATO in 2014. WHY to keep PUSHING and threatening Russia, forget Putin. Would YOU keep tolerating a neighbor next door (for example) blasting rock music @ 2a.m., I had one with a broken truck and deisel for a short time. NATO is worthless, from 1940. It only bleeds the fools as they are bled like Al Capone for protection money.

kkmail
  12/5/2015 11:50 EST

FYI Mike, there is a new government in place and they are doing exactly what is needed...Ridding of the corruption !!

Take care..

MichaelTryn
  12/5/2015 23:31 EST

God be with Ukraine, now if France and Germany can keep the U.S. from screwing things up?

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