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What a year!

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fecherklyn
  3/2/2022 17:49 EST

How things have changed. No, I am not talking about Covid, or Ukraine, it is the Colombian Peso exchange rate I was thinking about.

Today, March 2nd 2022, the US$/COP closed at 3,846.79.

A year ago, March 2nd 2021, it was 3,629.42.

During that 12 month period it hit a high of 4,080.68 on Jan 5th 2021.

A lot of volatility…non? Answer, Non, not necessarily; the British pound and Euro ended up today at almost exactly the same rates as one year ago.

So, it has been a good year for the US$.....that is, if you think your currency strength is a good thing (Most US expats will think that way.

But is it going to stay that way?
I challenge the forum members to offer their forecast…..What will happen to the dollar/peso over the next 12 months? RV March 2nd 2023.

Where did I put my crystal ball?

fecherklyn
  3/2/2022 18:01 EST

What a coincidence, I opened a new thread about exchange rates without noticing Karen had a similar ongoing message.

At least, it is a topical subject that appears to concern all expats.

Still haven't found my crystal ball but I doubt it was intended to cope with pressures on Reserve Currency status. Perhaps Russia and China have a project of this nature?

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geoffbob
  3/2/2022 20:02 EST

I don't interpret what is happening as a threat to the reserve currency status of the USD. One can make a strong case that the dollar ought to tank if judged solely as a kind of deranged fiscal "stimulus" policy in the US without taking into account what other countries have done to debase their own fiscal sanity. My point is that everything is relative, that other countries have been just as bird-brained, and while many think the dollar should have collapsed, it hasn't collapsed and in my opinion won't collapse any time soon.
The tectonic effects caused by the invasion of Ukraine could be long lasting but over time markets will adjust. Inflation is running at a brisk rate in the US so the Fed has announced a series of interest rate hikes for 2022 which will attract capital inflows into the US. Typically this will cause foreign currencies to devalue against the dollar so as to continue to attract capital investment away from the US and into their countries. If that scenario turns holds true and Putin doesn't go postal by doubling down, I look for the dollar to at least hold steady relative to other currencies.
Meanwhile the current administration in D.C. is faced with the consequences of its war on domestic energy production. Washington has announced stiff sanctions on practically everything except Russian oil for which we pay putin 70 million dollars a day. If the US cut off Russian oil imports gasoline prices will arouse so much anger that the Dems will be chased out of town and they know it. In order to placate the hard left they strangled the oil industry at home only to open themselves up to international blackmail.

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